Al Jazeera – October 1, 2024
Iran launches massive missile attack on Israel in response to assassinations
Dozens of ballistic rockets have made it through the country’s anti-aircraft defenses, footage circulating online suggests
Iran says it launched a barrage of missiles at Israel in response to the assassinations of senior Hezbollah, Hamas and Iranian officials, sending Israelis rushing to bomb shelters and raising fears of all-out war in the region.
Alarms sounded across Israel and explosions could be heard in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv during the attack late on Tuesday.
Israeli military spokesperson Daniel Hagari said there were no reports of casualties and that the army does not see “any more threats in our airspace”. He said in a video message that people in Israel were safe to leave shelters.
Israel’s emergency services said at least two people sustained light injuries “from shrapnel in the Tel Aviv area”.
The Palestinian news agency Wafa, citing the civil defence, said a 38-year-old Palestinian man died from shrapnel wounds in Jericho in the eastern occupied West Bank.
“A Palestinian worker in Jericho was killed when pieces of a rocket fell from the sky and hit him,” Jericho governor Hussein Hamayel told the AFP news agency.
Other local media outlets identified him as Sameh al-Assali, and said he was originally from the besieged Gaza Strip.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) said the missile attack on Israel was a response to the killing of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah and the IRGC commander Abbas Nilforoushan last week, as well as that of the Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh earlier this year, Iran’s Fars news agency reported.
“In response to the martyrdom of Ismail Haniyeh, Hassan Nasrallah and Nilforoushan, we targeted the heart of the occupied territories,” the IRGC said in a statement.
It said its missile attack targeted “three military bases” in the Tel Aviv area.
Earlier, the IRGC said it launched tens of missiles at Israel, and that if Israel retaliated, Tehran’s response would be “more crushing and ruinous”.
Iran’s state television said 80 percent of the missiles launched at Israel hit their targets.
The Israel military, meanwhile, said a “large number” of missiles had been intercepted.
Speaking to reporters, Hagari said the attack was serious and will have consequences “in a timely manner”.
A senior Iranian official told the Reuters news agency that the order to launch missiles at Israel was made by the country’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Khamenei remains in a secure location, the senior official added.
‘We absolutely need a ceasefire’
The United States said its forces were ready to provide “additional defensive support” to Israel after helping protect it from the Iranian missile attack.
“Our forces remain postured to provide additional defensive support and to protect US forces operating in the region” after “defending against Iranian-launched missiles targeting Israel”, a US defence official said on condition of anonymity.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the attack was “totally unacceptable” and should be condemned by the entire world.
“Initial reports suggest that Israel, with the active support of the United States and other partners, effectively defeated this attack,” Blinken told reporters.
Iranian-backed Iraqi armed groups meanwhile said US bases in Iraq and the region will be targets if the US joins any response to Iranian strikes on Israel or if Israel uses Iraqi airspace against Tehran.
The firing of missiles came after Israeli troops launched ground raids into Lebanon, in the biggest escalation of regional warfare since fighting erupted in Gaza last October.
Al Jazeera’s Dorsa Jabbari, reporting from the Lebanese capital Beirut, said some people there were celebrating Iran’s missile attack.
“We’ve heard over the last 20 since minutes Iran’s unprecedented attack on Israel, nonstop gunfire and fireworks being set off across the capital,” Jabbari said.
In nearby Jordan, the civil aviation authority said air traffic was temporarily suspended following the attack.
The country’s Public Security Directorate said its air defences intercepted missiles and drones.
“The Royal Jordanian Air Force and air defence systems responded to a number of missiles and drones that entered Jordanian airspace,” a statement said.
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres condemned the “broadening conflict in the Middle East”.
Slamming “escalation after escalation” in the region, Guterres said in a statement: “This must stop. We absolutely need a ceasefire.”
Op. True Promise II: Iran launches hundreds of missiles at Zionist entity, 90% hit targets
Sirens sounded all over the occupied territories on Tuesday night as Iran launched hundreds of missiles towards the Zionist entity, in a retaliatory attack dubbed Operation True Promise II.
Flares and missiles were seen in the Tel Aviv sky and explosions could be heard in the occupied al-Quds, sending Zionist settlers fleeing into shelters.
The Israel Airports Authority said that no aircraft will be allowed to take off or arrive at all Israeli airports.
Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported “direct hits” in Negev, Sharon and other locations from Iran’s attack.
The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) issued a statement shortly after the missile attack began.
It said in response to the martyrdom of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyah, Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, and IRGC commander Abbas Nilforoushan, the IRGC Aerospace Force launched dozens of ballistic missiles targeting key military and intelligence bases in the heart of the occupied territories.
The IRGC further said that the attack was in line with the country’s right to legitimate self-defense as per the United Nations Charter, and in response to the regime's escalating crimes—backed by the United States—against the people of Lebanon and Gaza.
The Zionist regime will face more crushing attacks in case it reacts to Iran’s operation, the IRGC added.
In a follow-up statement, the IRGC said three Israeli military bases in Tel Aviv were hit during the operation.
In this operation, a number of air and radar bases, as well as centers for conspiracy and assassination planning against resistance leaders and IRGC commanders were targeted, the statement said.
The IRGC noted that even though the designated areas were shielded by advanced defense systems, 90% of the missiles shot successfully hit their targets.
“The Zionist regime has been terrified by the intelligence and operational dominance of the Islamic Republic,” it added.
Iran's defense minister vows ‘far more severe’ reprisal if Israel attacks again
Iran’s defense minister has vowed that the country would serve the Israeli regime with a “far more severe” reprisal if the regime chose to respond to the Islamic Republic’s recent retaliation against Tel Aviv’s acts of aggression.
“If the Zionist regime dared to respond, our [subsequent] actions would be far more severe, and we would deploy a more advanced array of the missiles that we have at our disposal,” Brigadier General Aziz Nasirzadeh said on Tuesday.
“Tonight’s operation represented only a part of the Islamic Republic’s missile capability,” he said, adding, “A large part of this capability has not been deployed yet given its very advanced technology and much stronger destructive power.”
Earlier in the day, the country launched hundreds of missiles toward the Zionist entity’s military and intelligence bases in a retaliatory attack dubbed Operation True Promise II, which set off sirens all over the occupied Palestinian territories.
https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2024/10/01/734379/Iran-defense-minister-warning-Israel
What comes next?
Israeli military spokesperson Daniel Hagari said Israel is “fully prepared to defend and retaliate” against the Iranian attack, stressing that it would be in a “timely manner”.
Sullivan, the White House adviser, told reporters that the Biden administration “made clear that there will be consequences — severe consequences — for this attack” by Iran, and the US “will work with Israel to make that the case”.
Iran has warned Israel against responding to its attack, threatening to launch further missiles at the country if it retaliates.
Raed Jarrar, advocacy director at the US-based think tank DAWN, told Al Jazeera that the Middle East was now in “a full-scale regional war” that will not end without a change in American policy. “This will not stop without the United States putting its foot down and saying, ‘We will not send more weapons to Israel. We will not fund and aid Israeli crimes,'” he said.
Omar Rahman, a fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, said “there is no question” that Israel will respond. “You’re going to get into the type of retaliatory action, back and forth, that spawns a greater war,” he told Al Jazeera.
Rahman added that Israel “has been trying to invite this war” through its actions over the past several months. “Israel is capable of massive destruction, as we’re seeing in Lebanon. It’s capable of huge intelligence feats and waging really destruction warfare. Iran, I think, has tried to avoid that, but it’s on the path to some type of war with Israel.”
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/1/irans-missile-attack-against-israel-what-we-know-and-what-comes-next
Iraqi Resistance warns US, 'Israel' against attack
The Iraqi Resistance's coordination committee released a statement after Iran's response, warning US forces that if they were to intervene in a strike on Iran, or if "Israel" were to use Iraqi airspace to execute any strikes against Iran, then all US bases and interests in Iraq and the region would become legitimate targets.
NYT: Iran may have fired ballistic missiles
According to a New York Times report, the time that the first missile took to strike "Israel" (less than 15 minutes) seems to suggest that ballistic missiles were fired.
Similarly, The Washington Post reported the explosions multiple waves of sirens and multiple explosions, including a huge boom, could be heard from Tel Aviv. The explosions, at least 20 of them, sound like heavy warheads exploding — very different from the more familiar sound of air defenses intercepting Palestinian rockets.
In this context, Iran's IRIB news agency reported that the IRGC used the Fattah hypersonic missile in its attack. The Fattah reportedly pierced the Israeli anti-missile shield, which consists of Arrow-2 and Arrow-3 anti-ballistic missiles.
According to the New York Times, which cited the White House, US President Biden and VP Kamala Harris were following up on the Iranian response against "Israel" from the White House operations room. Biden ordered the army to "defend Israel against Iranian strikes and to down the missiles targeting Israel."
The Israeli occupation forces and the Red Alert service indicated that sirens were activated all over "Israel", with settlers being ordered to head to bomb shelters and chaos seen as prevailing in the streets all over occupied Palestine.
Commenting on the Iranian response, US presidential candidate Donald Trump wrote on his Truth Social account, in his usual all-caps, "THIS WAR WAS TOTALLY PREVENTABLE. IT SHOULD HAVE NEVER HAPPENED. IF I WERE PRESIDENT, IT WOULD NOT HAVE HAPPENED!"
Iranian News Agency – October 1, 2024
Hezbollah, Iraq resistance launch fresh attacks on Israeli regime
In a statement on Tuesday, Hezbollah said it carried out a missile strike against an Israeli airbase near Tel Aviv.
The group said its fighters fired “a salvo of Fadi-4 rockets at the Sde Dov air base” in retaliation for Israeli attacks on civilians in Lebanon and in support of the Palestinian people in Gaza.
Additionally, Hezbollah continued its offensive by targeting a gathering of enemy forces at the Metulla site with artillery shells, resulting in casualties.
Meanwhile, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq said in a statement they had launched Al-Arqab advanced cruise missiles at three vital targets in the occupied territories.
Resistance groups across the region have ramped up their strikes against Israeli positions since the regime assassinated Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah in a massive airstrike on southern Beirut on Friday.
https://en.irna.ir/news/85614612/Hezbollah-Iraq-resistance-launch-fresh-attacks-on-Israeli-regime
Death toll in Lebanon rises to 1,873 from Israeli aggression
The Israeli occupation aggression on Lebanon has killed 1,873 people and wounded 9,134 since last October.
Since last October, the Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon have killed 1,873 people and wounded 9,134, the Lebanese Ministry of Health's Emergency Response Center said on Tuesday.
"The death toll since the beginning of the events has reached 1,873, with 9,134 civilians injured," according to the announcement.
The Israeli occupation continues its brutal aggression on Lebanon for the ninth consecutive day, committing further massacres against civilians by destroying residential buildings in the South, Beqaa, and Beirut's Southern Suburb.
In the latest massacre in the South, 10 people were killed and several others were injured in an Israeli attack on the town of al-Dawoudiya.
The Interceptﾠreported on Tuesday that more than 1 million people in Lebanon have reportedly been displaced as "Israel" escalates its bombing across the country and chose to enter a new phase on Friday with the assassination of Hezbollah's Secretary-General, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah.
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/death-toll-in-lebanon-rises-to-1-873-from-israeli-aggression
Iranian News Agency – October 1, 2024
Yemeni army launches fresh naval attacks
The Yemeni Armed Forces spokesperson, Brigadier General Yahya Saree, announced on Tuesday that they had conducted three operations targeting vessels in different locations, Yemen's Al-Masirah news network reported.
He said that the first operation targeted the British oil tanker CORDELIA MOON in the Red Sea, using a combination of eight ballistic missiles, a drone, and a guided boat. This resulted in significant damage to the vessel.
The second operation focused on the vessel MARATHOPOLIS in the Indian Ocean, which was hit by a cruise missile, he added.
He further noted that a follow-up operation targeted the same vessel again as it sailed through the Arabian Sea, northeast of Yemen's Socotra Archipelago. This third strike involved a drone, causing a direct hit.
The Yemeni Armed Forces stated that these military actions were in response to American and British aggression against Yemen and were in support of the Palestinian and Lebanese resistance movements.
They also announced their intent to maintain a naval blockade on Israel, stating that their operations would continue until the aggression on Gaza is halted, the siege is lifted, and the attacks on Lebanon cease.
Yemenis have declared their open support for Palestine’s struggle against the Israeli occupation since the regime launched a devastating war on Gaza on October 7 after the territory’s Palestinian Resistance movements carried out a surprise retaliatory attack, dubbed Operation Al-Aqsa Storm, against the occupying entity.
Yemeni Armed Forces have said that they won’t stop their attacks until unrelenting Israeli ground and aerial offensives in Gaza, which have killed at least 41,638 people and wounded another 96,460 individuals, come to an end.
The United States and Britain in December announced a military coalition to target Yemen in support of the Zionist regime.
https://en.irna.ir/news/85614608/Yemeni-army-launches-fresh-naval-attacks
War on Humanity:
How Israel and America Forged Deception of Collaborative Collision?
By Mahboob A. Khawaja, PhD.
Wicked Leaders Pretend to be Peacemakers
Evil is a force and righteousness is characteristic of living humanity. They claim democracy but act like monsters of history never open to reason and intellect. The US and Israel stockpiled plans to subdue holistic doctrine of peace, human rights, freedom and justice and to entrench mankind into unthinkable catastrophic wars of political and economic domination. Historically those people and nations claiming lust of power and economic prosperity, it emboldens them to unleash crimes against small and weakers nations without accountability. People’s demonstrations for peace and justice and cries of help remain hollow voices buried without a trace. PM Netyanyahu demonstrates indifference to the US impulses for a ceasefire in Gaza and restraint to invade Lebanon but a reality check speaks otherwise of convergence of their understanding for broader strategic goals in the Middle East. There is no rational argument to converge peace in the Middle East. Western leaders utter dubious statements on principles of human equality, moral and institutional integrity, when Russia is accused of bombing the children hospitals in Kiyv and civilians hubs, it is a’ crime against humanity’ and ‘genocide.’ But when Israel bombs hospitals, places of worship and innocent civilians in Gaza, the US and the EU do not view it as a ‘crime against humanity’ and alleged ‘genocide.’ The UNO, the ICC and the ICJ blame Israel and the US direct complicity in these crimes against humanity. The US supplies all weapons to Israel to kill innocent people and destroy Palestine and move onward to attack Lebanon and beyond - the Arab world. After almost one year of tragic war, millions displaced forcibly, schools, hospitals and places of worship continued to be bombed, more than 41,000 innocent civilian women, children and elderly people of Gaza killed by design, more than 91,000 injured and some 16,000 or more children and women still buried under the rubble call urgent attention of global humanity to ‘save the succeeding generations from the scourge of war’, if there is any global conscience and morality still alive and intact.
Favorite perversion sets the disguised morality: “Netanyahu is not welcome to the White House”, said President Biden in July 2023, but in July 2024, Netanyahu was sitting with Biden at the White House. They play with time and history. American strategic interest is complicit in Israeli war machines to kill the top leadership of Hezbollah in Lebanon and mow the lawn across Gaza enabling new settlers to occupy Gaza. Time is critical for Arab-Muslim leaders to learn - what went wrong in Gaza and Lebanon. Le Parsiene -a French paper reports of a mole in Iran providing secret information to Israel about the location of late Hassan Nessarallah and his colleagues in Beirut. The Israeli intelligence worked hard to target the killing of Hezbollah leadership. Arab leaders should think of a navigational change rather than rituals of dead-ended thinking and practices. From impregnable truth to the revelations of cyber attacks of pager and cellphone explosions in Lebanon; the Saudis, Emirates, Qataris and other oil propelled phony prosper satellites should learn as for decades they are under the US-Israeli radar for more catastrophic surprises to come. They import tampered foods, rigged cell phones and big American cars - all are ticking devices to undermine their mental and physical well being to THINK and live as normal human beings. Exhibiting the new maps of Israeli plans at the UN General Assembly, PM Netanyahu envisioned the ‘Greater Israel’ inclusive of the occupied West Bank – as the unchallenging force of future-making. People and nations rejoice in truth and peace, not in evil and horrors of wars and pains of devastation and killing of fellow human beings. Netanyahu is an actor performing beyond his capacity and misleading the people of Israel to fake triumphs and glory - the end of human morality and integrity as military conquests could end Israeli’s own freedom - the Law of Nature. Pernicious consequences could help to boost Netanyahu’s numbers of popularity to stay in power but unsustainable warmongering could destroy the nation and its freedom. Crises unite people of diversity and Lebanon and Palestine are the geopolitics of Arab-Muslim leadership but there are no Arab-Muslim leaders to challenge the deception of PM Netanyahu as they maintain friendly relationships. The Arab-Muslim leaders live in the dark ages, just puppets of the US. Israeli leaders' plans knew the psychological make-up of Arab-Muslim leaders making fiery speeches for their own survival and posing no challenge to the US-Israeli alliance to dominate and control the oil exporting Arab Middle East. Please see:“How Arab Leaders Betray Islam and Defy the Logice of Political Change, Peace and Security.” https://www.uncommonthought.com/mtblog/archives/2023/10/07/how-did-arab-leaders-betrayed-islam-and-defied-the-logic-of-political-change-peace-and-security.php
America and Israel Violate the Sanctity of Earth, Peace and its Consequences could make them Obsolete
All humanity comes from dust and goes back to dust. Life is a trial of deeds having a beginning and an end to all human lives.Those bombing the Earth and killing fellow human beings are abnormal criminals bombing their own ‘Mother Earth’. To avert the consequences of their wrong thinking and actions, the US and Israel would go beyond all the red lines and call “ death to Arabs”, to annihilate the people of Palestine, Lebanon and other Arabian countries.The Earth is a Divine hub of human Life, Survival and a Trust, Those Bombing and Destroying it are mentally retarded and defy the sanctity of Divine Truth. It looks as if the US and Israeli leaders do not believe in God, life and death and final accountability. Earth is a “trust”to mankind for its existence, sustenance of life, survival, progress and future-making. Wherever there is a trust, there is accountability.The Divine warning (Chapter 7: 56: The Quran), warns: Do no mischief on the Earth after it hath been set in order, but call on God with fear and longing in hearts; For the Mercy of God is always near to those who do good. The Divine Message (Quran:40:64),clarifies:
It is God Who made for you the Earth as a resting place and the sky as a canopy; And has given you shape and made your shapes beautiful, And has provided for your Sustenance, of things pure and good; Such is God your Lord. So Glory to God, The Lord of the Worlds.
And killing of innocent people is prohibited in the Ten Commandments (Torah):
'Thou shalt not kill' (Exod. 20:13; also Deut. 5:17). Jewish law views the shedding of innocent blood very seriously, and lists murder as one of three sins (along with idolatry and sexual immorality), that fall under the category of yehareg ve'al ya'avor - meaning "One should let himself be killed rather than violate it.
Global Mankind and its Search for Peace and Conflict Management is Crushed by the Warmongers
To glance ahead it seems that the Western world failed to see a dreadful tragic history in the making of the end of time and loss of ingenuity to understand the consequences of naive egoism of Israeli leadership making war as an instrument of territorial expansion and conquest across Palestine, Lebanon and the larger Arab Middle East. Rationally arguable conclusion to the war on Gaza was perceivable if there was a unified political-military challenge to the Israeli plans by the Arab-Muslim world. That landscape appears morally, intellectually and politically bankrupt as a scum floating on a torrent of naive puppets and discredited leaders. The American-Israeli collaborative war on Gaza and its immediate consequences made the Western world and all of its institutions shamefully redundant and void in the 21st century global norms of civility, human rights, freedom, justice and safety of civilians. Are the Israeli leaders driven by the lust of American weapons and economic power to conquer Palestine, Lebanon, Syria and other Arab nations? Those doing so are not conscious of their own end game. PM Netanyahu and his extremist regime would try to put an end to the freedom of Palestine. Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon and Syria and a lot more are the experimental lab for that end game. Perpetuated wickedness denies blind terror, religious awe and killings of people across Gaza. Are We, the People not witnessing a cataclysmic bloodbath being unleashed by continuous aerial bombardments and destruction of lives and habitats across Gaza and Lebanon? The US and West European leaders would confer with Israeli planned displacement of Palestinians to other parts of the world. We, the People reject the violent assumptions of militarization and egoistic triumphs by acts of war and genocidal plans in Gaza and invasion and occupation of Lebanon. Peter Koenig (“Israel’s Killing Fields. Albert Einstein‘s Foresight?” Global Research: 11/12/2023), elaborates how Albert Einstein viewed the emerging conflict in his foresight: Did Einstein foresee, or sense, Palestine becoming Israel’s killing fields, from 1948 forward, to explode in a worldwide tolerated, even supported, and encouraged democide / genocide, just three-quarters of a century after the birth of Israel? Does Netanyahu, his entourage – and the West – realize that the 75 years of Apartheid, of ethnic cleansing of Palestinians and of wiping the Gaza Strip and eventually all the Palestinian land off the map is comparable to, or worse than the “Holocaust”?https://www.globalresearch.ca/israel-killing-fields-albert-einstein-foresight/5839352
Dr. Mahboob A. Khawaja specializes in international affairs-global security, peace and conflict resolution and has spent several academic years across the Russian-Ukrainian and Central Asian regions knowing the people, diverse cultures of thinking and political governance and a keen interest in Islamic-Western comparative cultures and civilizations, and author of several publications including: One Humanity and the Remaking of Global Peace, Security and Conflict Resolution, and a forthcoming book: Global Humanity and the Remaking of Peace, Security and Conflict Resolution beyond the Lens of Human Consciousness.
Hezbollah has been dealt a heavy blow, but it can still win against Israel
The Israeli ground invasion may even give it a tactical advantage.
With the assassination of Hezbollah’s secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah, on September 28, Israel has brought the ongoing conflict to a critical juncture. The killing, which involved the dropping of dozens of 2,000-pound bombs on the densely-populated southern suburbs of Beirut, came on the tail of a violent aerial campaign that killed more than 500 people in the span of 24 hours. That was preceded by unprecedented attacks on Hezbollah’s rank and file using booby-trapped pagers and other communication devices.
All of this has provided Israel with a significant tactical advantage. If sustained alongside other tactical operations, these efforts could weaken Hezbollah’s ability to respond effectively. The attacks have dealt a major blow to the chain of command of the Radwan Force, which has not yet been deployed in this conflict, and whose involvement is contingent upon the appointment of new commanders as well as the strategic progression of the war. The assassination of Ali Karaki, the commander of Hezbollah’s southern front, although of symbolic significance, does not appear to affect Hezbollah’s capacity to continue expanding the range of fire on Israeli cities.
Israel’s ultimate goal with these attacks is to decouple its war on Gaza from the conflict in Lebanon – that is to force Hezbollah to stop supporting Hamas by attacking northern Israel. The Israeli government is using escalation as a means to achieve this goal. A successful decoupling, the Israelis believe, would create a rift among the members of the axis of resistance, which Hamas and Hezbollah are both part of.
But there is a risk that this Israeli approach will backfire. Israel may, in fact, find itself in a situation similar to 2006, when it was the stronger side but still lost its confrontation with Hezbollah due to the paradox of escalation. This is because, in asymmetric war, relatively weaker entities can win by simply employing strategic patience, prolonging the war and forcing their stronger opponent to expend significant resources, ultimately depleting them.
It is important to point out that Hezbollah cannot back down from this confrontation, even at a heavy cost in terms of its leaders’ lives. The stakes are extremely high; if it were to retreat, it would not only lose the trust and confidence of its supporters, but it could also jeopardise the strategic deterrence it has built since the 2006 war with Israel. That is why, the surviving Hezbollah leadership is likely to fight to the end.
In the present case, all Hezbollah has to do is mobilise its remaining capabilities to continue its rocket attacks on northern Israel, which will prevent the Israeli army from securing the return of evacuated residents, and resist Israeli attempts to push its forces north of the Litani River through a ground offensive.
Even if the Israeli army does not face fierce resistance, whatever advances it makes in the “limited ground operation” it just declared may be temporary. It would, therefore, face the choice of whether to expand the operation or not.
Hezbollah continues to respond to Israel’s escalation with a restrained approach, hoping to provoke it into initiating a full-scale invasion. For Hezbollah, an escalation into ground warfare offers considerable tactical advantages.
The presence of Israeli ground troops would limit the effectiveness of Israel’s air force. For example, the F-35 would not be used in areas where Israeli troops are clashing with Hezbollah due to the risk of Israeli soldiers dying in such bombardment. Other tactical aircraft may also have limited use, as Hezbollah may be equipped with anti-aircraft missiles.
Additionally, Hezbollah’s forces are more familiar with the challenging terrain of southern Lebanon, giving them a major advantage. Over the years, Hezbollah has also developed a robust logistical and military infrastructure designed to support prolonged ground warfare in this area.
Furthermore, for Hezbollah, fighting Israeli troops on the ground offers an opportunity to further solidify its image as a resistance group among the Arab public – an image that was relatively eroded due to its involvement in the Syrian civil war.
An open long confrontation with Israel would reposition Hezbollah as the leading resistance faction in the Arab world, bolstering its image as a staunch defender of Palestinian and Arab interests. This renewed standing would likely enhance its influence across the region and could strengthen its ability to recruit volunteers and gain support from Arab and Muslim communities.
Israel will likely try to avoid engaging in a prolonged, open confrontation that requires redeployment of its troops deep across the border into Lebanon. High personnel losses could lead to mounting pressure on the Israeli government to pull out, presenting Hezbollah with a victory.
However, the current Israeli strategy of intense bombardment to force Hezbollah to accept a ceasefire on Israeli terms has its limits. While the current US administration is readily replenishing Israel’s depleted arms and ammunition stocks, it is doing so at an ever-increasing cost.
Although the US establishment remains in full support of Israel, a significant segment of American voters on both sides of the political spectrum opposes this support for ethical and economic reasons. Whoever gets elected in the US presidential election will likely feel compelled to put an end to Israel’s endless escalation, possibly by threatening to cut weapons supplies. That is why, Israel is in a hurry to establish new facts on the ground in the region before the elections.
On the other hand, for Hezbollah and other resistance movements, this is fundamentally a war of attrition that will continue, even if Israel manages to achieve some early successes. Although Hezbollah has faced considerable losses over the past two weeks, it still has the potential to declare another victory over Israel. Similar to Hamas in Gaza, survival alone can be considered a success. These are likely the calculations being made in Beirut, as well as by its strategic supporters in Tehran.
In the end, Israel’s attempts to create a rift within the axis of resistance may have the opposite effect. Recent history suggests that instead of causing division, the escalation of Israeli operations bolsters public support for the resistance while also reinforcing the unity among its members in Lebanon, Palestine, and beyond.
Samer B Jaber is a PhD researcher specialising in political economy at Royal Holloway, University of London. He is also a fellow with the Council for At-Risk Academics (CARA). He focuses on the Arab world and the Middle East region.
