Al Mayadeen – October 30, 2024
Hezbollah, Hamas capabilities, tactics dominating war: Israeli media
Israeli media reports indicate that the Israeli occupation is concealing its losses as the Hezbollah and Hamas deal causes severe blows to the Israeli Army.
The Israeli occupation authorities have recently ramped up their efforts to impose strict media censorship, aiming to prevent any disclosure of material or human losses resulting from Hezbollah's operations in Lebanon. Despite these efforts, Israeli officials and analysts are voicing concerns over Hezbollah's formidable military capabilities and the profound impact on the Israeli occupation.
Israeli national security expert and retired Israeli military colonel Kobi Marom admitted on Channel 13 that Hezbollah’s rocket strength, combined with its leadership and control, poses a significant threat.
"The ground operation in Lebanon comes at a high cost for us," he warned, urging caution following previous miscalculations regarding Palestinian resistance intentions. Marom added the need for increased budgets to reconstruct the Israeli occupation's damaged northern areas.
Additionally, Israeli media reported power outages at Israeli military positions along the border, attributed to the ongoing shelling from Lebanon.
Internal crisis over urban warfare
The Resistance's actions in Gaza and Lebanon are deepening internal divides within the Israeli military leadership.
Amir Bohbot, a military correspondent for the Israeli Walla news website highlighted a lack of coordination between the Israeli northern and southern commands. He described the ongoing crisis as a "war of minds" in both southern Lebanon and Gaza, fueled by Hezbollah and Hamas' shift to urban warfare tactics involving explosive devices.
According to Bohbot, there is a "significant gap" in the Israeli military structure, citing a recent incident in Gaza involving the 252nd Division, where veteran reserve soldiers refused to enter a Palestinian building due to insufficient backup from special units.
A reserve officer remarked that certain tasks are "detached from reality," stating that high-ranking leaders often ignore operational gaps, forcing missions despite apparent limitations.
Separately, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly preoccupied with the threat of drones, prompting him to delay his son Avner's wedding, originally scheduled for late November.
Israeli news site Srugim reported that Netanyahu fears potential drone attacks from Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen. Netanyahu himself recently questioned, "What will we do if a drone reaches the Knesset?" while admitting that drones, despite advancements in the Israeli interception systems, remain a pressing concern due to their elusiveness.
Unrelenting pressure
Israeli forces have been caught off guard by Hezbollah's resilience, as the Resistance movement continues to launch rockets and drones, engaging Israeli forces at the border and inflicting notable losses. Calls to halt northern hostilities and negotiate an agreement have grown louder within the Israeli occupation.
In line with this sentiment, the Israeli Maariv newspaper acknowledged Hezbollah's capacity to sustain long-term pressure on the occupation through continued artillery and rocket fire. The newspaper confirmed that Hezbollah has retained its missile capabilities and has been intensifying attacks on Israeli cities such as Safad and Haifa.
Former Gaza Division commander, Maj. Gen. (Res.) Gadi Shamni also criticized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, describing him as "detached from his people and soldiers" and blaming him for what he called the government's "complete failure." Shamni argued that the Israeli occupation urgently needed to end the war and secure the release of captives.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah reiterated its readiness for prolonged confrontation and stated it would not accept a ceasefire on Israeli terms, asserting that it "negotiates from a position of strength," with the battlefield ultimately determining the outcome.
On his part, former commander of the Israeli Northern Corps, Noam Tibon, highlighted that more than 800 Israeli soldiers have been killed and around 12,000 injured, with thousands suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) since the war began a year ago.
"We have lost the manpower of a whole division, and we need three additional divisions; otherwise, we will find it difficult to defend Israel," Tibon underscored.
'Israel' has long way to go to 'defeat Hezbollah': Jerusalem Post
On Monday, Israeli media reported that the number of Israeli soldiers killed in southern Lebanon is increasing daily rather than decreasing over time.
An analysis by Seth Frantzman published in the Israeli newspaper The Jerusalem Post pointed out that, after a month into war with Lebanon, the Israeli operation has begun to "take toll".
The strikes "Israel" conducted to supposedly weaken Hezbollah’s command and control have failed to meet their objectives, as the Lebanese group's leadership remains intact and capable of continuing its deadly operations, Frantzman indicated.
Despite that the assassination of Hezbollah commanders and Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah "should have weakened the group’s command and control," the Gaza war has revealed that such movements "are capable of replacing commanders even as they suffer blows," according to Frantzman.
Al Mayadeen – October 30, 2024
Hezbollah can continue to drain 'Israel', war must end: Israeli media
Israeli newspaper Maariv says Hezbollah still retains its rocket capabilities and will persist in its launches in the coming days.
Hezbollah can continue to drain "Israel" and launch its projectiles for many months, Israeli newspaper Maariv suggested on Tuesday.
It also highlighted that the Lebanese Resistance still retains its rocket capabilities and will persist in its launches in the coming days, with significant fire directed at Safad and Haifa.
In a related context, Israeli media cited former Gaza Division commander, Reserve General Gadi Shamni, as saying that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is a "cold-hearted person" who does not care about the captives held in Gaza and is disconnected from "his people" and soldiers.
Shamni acknowledged a complete failure of Netanyahu's government, asserting that the premier has caused immense damage to "Israel".
"Israel" needs to end the war and bring back the captives, he stressed.
On his part, former commander of the Israeli Northern Corps, Noam Tibon, highlighted that more than 800 Israeli soldiers have been killed and around 12,000 injured, with thousands suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) since the war began a year ago.
"We have lost the manpower of a whole division, and we need three additional divisions; otherwise, we will find it difficult to defend Israel," Tibon underscored.
'Israel' has long way to go to 'defeat Hezbollah': Jerusalem Post
On Monday, Israeli media reported that the number of Israeli soldiers killed in southern Lebanon is increasing daily rather than decreasing over time.
An analysis by Seth Frantzman published in the Israeli newspaper The Jerusalem Post pointed out that, after a month into war with Lebanon, the Israeli operation has begun to "take toll".
The strikes "Israel" conducted to supposedly weaken Hezbollah’s command and control have failed to meet their objectives, as the Lebanese group's leadership remains intact and capable of continuing its deadly operations, Frantzman indicated.
Despite that the assassination of Hezbollah commanders and Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah "should have weakened the group’s command and control," the Gaza war has revealed that such movements "are capable of replacing commanders even as they suffer blows," according to Frantzman.
"Hezbollah continues to fight on," the writer stressed.
"The challenge in southern Lebanon is that while Hezbollah has suffered blows to its command and control, the group appears to be clinging on and it is capable of continued deadly operations."
He said that although the goal behind "Israel's" ground incursion into Lebanon was to return 60,000 Israelis to northern settlements, "However, in a month of war, the rocket fire continues to average around 100-200 rockets fired by Hezbollah a day."
The report highlighted that fighting on two fronts — Gaza and Lebanon — along with Hezbollah’s ongoing rocket launches demonstrates that despite some Israeli "successes", these do not necessarily reduce losses on the front lines or bring about a swift defeat of these groups.
Frantzman also noted that Hezbollah has started releasing statements listing specific locations it intends to target, signaling that the Lebanese group units carrying out rocket attacks are able to supply central command with intelligence.
After approximately 27 days of ground combat with Hezbollah and over a month of intense Israeli operations against Lebanon, "Israel" still has a long way to go to “defeat Hezbollah”, the analysis suggested.
Al Mayadeen – October 30, 2024
Hezbollah strikes arms production factory, power outage reported
The Islamic Resistance in Lebanon attacked several Israeli sites, including a factory that produces drone parts, in northern occupied Palestine.
The Islamic Resistance in Lebanon - Hezbollah is actively countering attempts by the Israeli occupation forces to infiltrate southern Lebanon, simultaneously targeting Israeli troop groupings and sites in northern occupied Palestine.
In its first statement on Wednesday, Hezbollah announced that its fighters targeted at dawn a grouping of Israeli soldiers in the al-Omra area, south of the town of Khiam, with a barrage of rockets. Shortly afterward, the fighters launched a second round of rockets at another grouping of occupation forces in the same area.
At the same time, they targeted Israeli soldiers in the al-Yaqousa area, near Khiam, also with a barrage of rockets. Later, the fighters returned to the al-Yaqousa site and struck a grouping of Israeli soldiers for a second time with rockets.
Today's operations saw the Islamic Resistance's air defense units intercept an Israeli Hermes 450 drone in the western sector of Lebanese airspace using a surface-to-air missile, forcing it to retreat.
In its statements, Hezbollah affirmed that these operations are in support of the resilient Palestinian people in Gaza and in solidarity with their steadfast resistance, as well as in defense of Lebanon and its people.
Drone explosion in Nahariya and power outages at Israeli military sites
Al Mayadeen's correspondent reported that three rocket barrages were fired from Lebanon toward the occupied Palestinian territories.
Another barrage targeted Israeli settlements in the al-Jalil Panhandle area, triggering alarms in several northern areas, including Haifa, Netanya, Khodeira, and areas north of Tel Aviv, accompanied by sounds of explosions.
Sirens were also heard in Kiryat Ata, Karmeil, Manasseh, Kiryat Shmona, and surrounding areas.
Israeli media reported a drone explosion at a UAV parts manufacturing factory in the industrial zone of the Nahariya settlement in northern occupied Palestine. Public broadcaster Kan noted that a drone struck the factory without triggering alarms. Additionally, Israeli media reported power outages at military sites along the border due to shelling from Lebanon.
Operations overview
- At 02:30 am, the Islamic Resistance fighters targeted a grouping of Israeli soldiers in the al-Omra area, south of Khiam, with a barrage of rockets.
- At 03:30 am, the fighters targeted a grouping of Israeli soldiers in the al-Omra area, south of Khiam, with a barrage of rockets.
- At 03:30 am, the fighters targeted a grouping of Israeli soldiers in the al-Yaqouqa area, near Khiam, with a barrage of rockets.
- At 04:30 am, the fighters targeted a grouping of Israeli soldiers in the al-Yaqouqa area near al-Khiam, with a barrage of rockets.
- At 07:45 am, the fighters launched an aerial attack with a squadron of kamikaze drones on the Tirat Carmel base in southern Haifa, hitting their targets accurately.
- At 11:00 am, Islamic Resistance fighters targeted a grouping of Israeli soldiers at the Khillat al-Asafir area in the town of Khiam with a barrage of rockets.
- At 11:00 am, Islamic Resistance fighters targeted a grouping of Israeli soldiers east of the Wazzani Spring with a barrage of rockets.
- At 11:00 am, Islamic Resistance fighters targeted a grouping of Israeli soldiers in the Wata al-Khiam area (southeast of the town) with a barrage of rockets.
- At 12:00 pm, Islamic Resistance fighters targeted, for the second time, a grouping of Israeli soldiers at the Khillat al-Asafir area in the town of Khiam with a barrage of rockets.
- At 12:30 pm, Islamic Resistance fighters targeted a grouping of Israeli soldiers near the Shebaa Gate with a barrage of rockets.
- At 12:45 pm, Islamic Resistance fighters targeted, for the second time, a grouping of Israeli soldiers near the Shebaa Gate with a barrage of rockets.
- At 1:30 pm, Islamic Resistance fighters targeted, for the second time, groupings of Israeli soldiers in the Wata al-Khiam area (southeast of the town) with a barrage of rockets.
- At 1:25 pm, Islamic Resistance fighters bombed the Krayot, north of Haifa, with a barrage of rockets.
- At 2:15 pm, Islamic Resistance fighters targeted a grouping of Israeli soldiers near the Fatima Gate with a barrage of rockets.
- At 2:15 pm, the Islamic Resistance's air defense units intercepted a Hermes 450 drone in the western sector of Lebanese airspace using a surface-to-air missile, forcing it to retreat.
Al Mayadeen – October 30, 2024
Israel launches wide-ranging strikes on Baalbek city, east Lebanon
Following Israeli orders of immediate evacuation, residents from different areas of Baalbek began to flee the city.
The Israeli occupation continued Wednesday its aggression across various regions in Lebanon, intensifying bombardments in areas around Baalbek and Tyre.
Israeli occupation aircraft launched a series of violent raids on Baalbek and its surroundings, targeting residential neighborhoods in the hills of Ras al-Ain, Aamachki, al-Asirah, the Kayyal road, and both northern and southern entrances to Baalbek.
Israeli warplanes also targeted Ain Bourday, Douris, diesel tanks in their vicinity, the outskirts of Shmistar, the town of I'aat and surrounding areas, while also launching heavy airstrikes on Sohmor and Libbaya in western Bekaa.
Meanwhile, Lebanon's Health Ministry announced that the toll of the Israeli aggression has risen to 2,822 martyrs, and 12,937 wounded, with 30 killed and 165 wounded following the Israeli aggression on Tuesday.
Al Mayadeen’s correspondent said that the Israeli occupation carried out a heavy strike near Dar al-Amal Hospital in Baalbek.
Following Israeli orders of immediate evacuation, residents across Baalbek began to flee the city.
In Mount Lebanon, our correspondent reported that an Israeli drone targeted a vehicle on the Qmatiyeh road in Aley district.
Civilian martyrs in South
In the South, our correspondent reported that Israeli aircraft targeted the city of Nabatieh al-Faouqa.
The Israeli air force conducted a strike on the town of al-Ramadiyah, another between the towns of Rmadiyeh and Chaaitiyeh in the Tyre district, and targeted the town of Sriri in the southern Jezzine region.
Meanwhile, the Lebanese Civil Defense and the al-Risala Health Relief Association are working to retrieve the body of a martyred child and five wounded individuals following an Israeli airstrike on the agricultural area near Tyre.
Al Mayadeen’s correspondent also reported that Israeli warplanes launched multiple raids on Khiam, in conjunction with artillery bombardments targeting the city.
Earlier in the day, an Israeli drone targeted a passenger bus on the Kahale-Araya road in Mount Lebanon Governorate.
Additionally, an Israeli drone fired a rocket that missed a car on the Bchamoun road in Mount Lebanon.
Daily Sabah – October 30, 2024
UN Security Council warns against Israel's UNRWA ban
The United Nations Security Council expressed grave concern over Israel's ban on the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) for Palestinian refugees, calling it vital to deliver much-needed humanitarian aid supplies to the people in wartorn Gaza.
"The Members of the Security Council strongly warned against any attempts to dismantle or diminish UNRWA's operations and mandate, recognizing that any interruption or suspension of its work would have severe humanitarian consequences for millions of Palestinian refugees who depend on the Agency's services and also implications for the region," they said in a statement.
It came after the adoption of bills by the Israeli Knesset (parliament) against UNRWA to prevent it from operating in the Occupied Palestinian Territory.
"The Members of the Security Council demanded to all parties to enable UNRWA to carry out its mandate, as adopted by the General Assembly, in all areas of operation, with full respect for the humanitarian principles of humanity, neutrality, impartiality and independence, and to respect international humanitarian law including the protection of U.N. and humanitarian facilities," said the statement.
They also demanded that all parties take necessary steps to allow and facilitate humanitarian aid to civilians in Gaza, in accordance with international humanitarian law.
The Council also called on Israel to "abide by its international obligations" and "respect the privileges and immunities" of the agency.
https://www.dailysabah.com/world/mid-east/un-security-council-warns-against-israels-unrwa-ban
Daily Sabah – October 30, 2024
Geopolitical tensions: Middle East in global rivalry
As great powers vie for dominance, countless individuals – like Palestinians and Ukrainians – bear the cost
By Muhittin Ataman
With the full and unconditional support of the United States and Western European countries, the Israeli government has been attacking Middle Eastern countries and committing genocide against Palestinians living in the Gaza Strip. The first step of Israel’s expansionist policies in the Middle East has been the increased occupation of Palestinian lands. After the total destruction of the Gaza Strip, Israeli forces now target the West Bank. Neither international organizations such as the United Nations, nor any global or regional states have been able to stop the Israeli atrocities. Israel continues to violate all related norms and rules of international law and most Western countries such as Germany have been justifying Israel’s crimes and attacks against innocent Palestinians.
In the second stage, Israel began to hit regional countries, including Yemen, Lebanon, Syria and Iran. Israel continues to violate the national sovereignty of most Middle Eastern countries through its direct attacks or the use of their air spaces. The same pro-Israeli coalition of the Western countries continues their support of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government against all other countries. For instance, the U.S. government declared that Israel has the right to hit Iran. However, it stated that the U.S. will not remain indifferent if Iran retaliates. In other words, for the U.S. administration, it is alright for Israel to target any country in the region. Still, it is not acceptable for any regional country to defend itself against Israeli aggression.
One of the main reasons for the unconditional support of the U.S. to Israel in the Middle East is global rivalry. When the U.S. decided to decrease its military power in the region, the two challenging global powers, namely China and Russia, increased their economic, political and military presence in the Middle East. It was the U.S. and other Western countries that directly or indirectly paved the way for the Russian increased presence in the region, especially in Syria. Thus, they attempted to separate Russia from China as part of the isolation policy against Beijing.
However, when Russia invaded Ukrainian territories, Western countries decided to take measures against Russia. The U.S. pursued a harsh anti-Russian policy and exaggerated the Russian threat against Central and Eastern European states in order to consolidate its transatlantic alliance since most Western European states were eager to cooperate with China within the context of the Belt and Road Initiative. In the end, Western European countries became more dependent on the U.S. in their foreign policies. Although Western European countries have taken a moderate stance toward Russia, they have had to follow the U.S. in imposing sanctions against Russia.
Eventually, Russia reduced its presence in the Middle East and North Africa. Moscow has withdrawn many of its military troops from the MENA region and sent them to the Ukrainian front. In addition, by allowing, if not encouraging, Israel to target Iran and Syria, the U.S. has been trying to weaken pro-Russian powers in the region. There were some claims that Iran has been sending unmanned aerial vehicles to Russia. By intensifying the regional tension and by spreading the war across the region, the U.S. will prevent Iran’s support to Russia.
The U.S. does not want China to be involved in Middle Eastern affairs either. Until very recently, China has been insistently declaring its policy of non-intervention and non-involvement in the affairs of its economic partners. However, recently China has attempted to be involved in Middle Eastern affairs through a mediation mechanism. China mediated between Iran and Saudi Arabia, two arch-regional rivals. China succeeded in de-escalating tensions between the two states.
Similarly, China has been involved in the Palestinian question. China hosted 14 different Palestinian factions, including Hamas, last July. Under Chinese supervision, these factions discussed the possibility of forming a unity government in Palestine. For this reason, they signed the Beijing Dialogue, the most inclusive reconciliation talks aimed at forming a unity government. While the U.S. led the Israeli government to destroy the political power of the Palestinians, China tried to consolidate the Palestinian front. In other words, the U.S. and China adopted opposite positions on the Palestinian-Israeli question.
By supporting Israeli atrocities and attacks against regional countries, the U.S. aims to weaken the main economic partners of China and to deprive China of its important partners in the Middle East. On the one hand, the U.S. has been trying to weaken Iran, the most important Chinese partner in the region. It is important to remember that Iran is a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS, the two effective China-led global platforms.
On the other hand, by destabilizing the Middle Eastern region, the U.S. does not allow regional rich countries such as Saudi Arabia to invest in developmental projects, most of which are carried on with China, which is still the largest buyer of Saudi oil. With the increase of political instability and military tension in the region, all regional countries have to invest in military technologies, most of which are provided by the U.S. and other Western countries.
In conclusion, with its unconditional support to Israel, the U.S. aims to hit as many birds as it can. The U.S. aims for the Middle Eastern balance of power, with a politically absent Arab world, a weakened Iran and an isolated Türkiye. Thus, the U.S. and Israel will be able to freely design the Middle East.
The U.S. also wants to eliminate, or at least significantly reduce, the influence of other global powers, namely China and Russia, in the region. Within this context, the Middle East region and the lives of innocent Palestinians are instrumentalized by the U.S. in its global rivalry with China and Russia. In the end, the innocent Palestinians (and the Ukrainians) pay the ultimate price for this global rivalry. As an African proverb says, “When the elephants fight, the grass gets trampled.”
Muhittin Ataman is a professor in the Department of International Relations at Social Sciences University of Ankara. He is also the Editor-in-Chief of Insight Turkey, published by SETA Foundation.
https://www.dailysabah.com/opinion/columns/geopolitical-tensions-middle-east-in-global-rivalry
Eurasia Geopolitical maps
https://eurasiangeopolitics.com/geopolitical-maps/
What's holding Saudi Arabia back from joining BRICS+?
Membership to the bloc could benefit all involved, but the kingdom is concerned about how this would impact its relationship with one key ally (the United States).
BY Giorgio Cafiero
This leads some analysts toᅠconclude that Riyadh may choose to focus more on enhancing relationships with the countries of the bloc on a bilateral basis. This would be while participating selectively in BRICS+, essentially as a de facto member whose engagement is mostly for symbolic purposes.
For now, doing this might be the Saudi way of continuing to enhance its networks throughout the Global South while minimising the risk of antagonising Washington, which is set to continue perceiving the bloc's expansion as a challenge to US interests.
"Overall, I think Saudi Arabia's interest in BRICS will be largely symbolic rather than substantial, given that it's still heavily reliant on Washington for defence. But should BRICS become a favourable entity by which to export energy, Saudi Arabia's interest would dramatically increase," Bohl concluded.
Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putinᅠhosted the first BRICS+ summit. Representatives ofᅠ36 countries, includingᅠ22 heads of state, attended this three-day gathering in Kazan, which constituted a challenge to Western efforts to isolate Russia over the Ukraine conflict.
Speaking on the final day of the summit, which was billed as an "outreach" to the Global South, Putinᅠasserted that the participating countries "share similar ambitions, values and a vision for a new democratic world order."
BRICS recently became BRICS+ after the addition of four new members. It was significant that Egyptian PresidentᅠAbdel Fattah El-Sisi, Ethiopia's Prime MinisterᅠAbiy Ahmed, Iran's PresidentᅠMasoud Pezeshkian, and the United Arab Emirates' PresidentᅠMohammed bin Zayed attended the summit.
With Türkiye, Azerbaijan, and Malaysia having applied for membership in this expanding bloc, their leaders were alsoᅠpresent.
However, Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) was not there. Despite havingᅠreceived an invitation to join BRICS last year, Riyadh has not, at least so far, accepted.
What's holding it back?
Essentially, the kingdom has done a cost-benefit analysis and concluded that, for the time being, it is more prudent to hold off on accepting the BRICS+ invitation.
This is for several reasons, with the most important one being Riyadh's concerns about what joining could mean for Saudi Arabia's relationship with Washington, which has put the kingdom under significant pressure to not accept its BRICS+ invitation.
However, this does not mean that Riyadh is not interested in possibly joining the bloc later, said Dr. Andreas Krieg, an associate professor at the Defence Studies Department of King's College London.
Speaking to TRT World, Krieg said, "I think it's quite clear that the Saudis have quite a lot to gain from (BRICS+) in terms of access to the Global South…in terms of deepening trade relationships, creating some formal underbelly to underwrite and put trade relations on a solid foundation."
BRICS+ offers many future markets for Saudi Arabia, he added.
At the same time, there is much that Saudi Arabia could bring to the BRICS+ table. For starters, the kingdom joining the bloc would significantly increase the percentage of the world’s crude oil produced by BRICS+ members.
Additionally, through its sovereign wealth fund, Saudi Arabia's membership in BRICS+ could open up many investment, trade, and commerce opportunities for the bloc's existing members.
But for now, other overriding factors are keeping Saudi Arabia at bay.
The kingdom's leadership seems to have concluded that at this juncture, the economic benefits of entering the bloc, which presents itself as anᅠalternative to the Western-led order, would probably not outweigh the costs to its partnership with the US.
There is no denying the relevance of great power competition. The kingdom's entry into BRICS+ could risk putting Riyadh under more geopolitical pressure vis-à-vis hostilities between the West and Russia, as well as US-China competition.
Washington could perceive a Saudi entry into the bloc as a major win for China and Russia at the expense of US interests in terms of dollar hegemony and other issues.
Although Saudi Arabia seeks to assert its autonomy on the international stage and diversify its partnerships in an increasingly multipolar world, Riyadh tends to pursue this balancing act with much more caution than Abu Dhabi.
Whereas the UAE can shield itself from much criticism in Washington due to the Abraham Accords, Saudi Arabia's lack of a normalised relationship with Israel puts it in a different position.
Given the BRICS+ consensus in favour of de-dollarisation, the Saudi leadership is careful on this front. This is probably especially so given the possibility of Donald Trump returning to the Oval Office in January.
Trump established a record of imposing tariffs on countries during his first term, and has been clear about continuing to do so on nations that move down the de-dollarisation path.
While on the campaign trail last month, the Republican presidential hopefulᅠannounced, "You leave the dollar and you're not doing business with the United States because we are going to put a 100 percent tariff on your goods."
Considering that Saudi exports are relatively low, with the kingdom not even being one of the US's top 25 import partners last year, such a tariff might have a limited impact on Riyadh's trade interests.
However, Trump might take other steps to go after countries which move in the de-dollarisation direction, a possibility that Saudi Arabia is unlikely to ignore.
Defense cooperation with the US
Additionally, the US remains Saudi Arabia's top defense partner, supplying the kingdom with 75 percent of its arms. Realistically, neither China nor Russia has the will and capacity to replace the US as Saudi Arabia's security guarantor.
This fact is not lost on Saudi decision makers, said Ryan Bohl, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at the risk intelligence company RANE.
Speaking to TRT World, he said "The US and Saudi Arabia are enjoying warmer relations as of late, so a delay makes sense as Riyadh gauges how much BRICS can truly benefit Saudi Arabia versus how much it's seeing an improvement with the US. After all, the US is about to restart offensive arms sales to Saudi, something BRICS cannot offer."
Thus, the potential expansion of the US security umbrella, which is a delicate issue that Riyadh and Washington have beenᅠnegotiating, is a key factor to consider.
"If Saudi Arabia joined BRICS, it would not derail the relationship (with the US)," said Dr. Neil Quilliam, an associate fellow in the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House.
"But it would create friction in the relationship and give rise to bureaucratic resistance and ultimately frustrate the Saudi leadership. It would also give those US politicians and media influencers that oppose closer ties with Saudi Arabia, especially the signing of a defence treaty, more reason to raise red flags over the kingdom's loyalty to Washington," he told TRT World.
Unease with Russian foreign policy
Another factor weighing on Saudi Arabia's BRICS+ calculus is its relationship with Russia.
In recent years, the two countries have strengthened bilateral ties across a host of domains. But at the moment, certain aspects of Moscow's foreign policy in the Middle East unsettle Saudi Arabia's leadership.
Perhaps what could be described as growing alignment between Russia and the Iran-led "Axis of Resistance" partly accounts for MBS not being in Kazan last week.
First, there is theᅠdeepening military cooperation between Russia and Iran. When it comes to drones, missiles, and possibly later on missile defence and fighter jets, the Saudis have concerns about the support which Moscow and Tehran give each other.
Second, there is, according to some sources, growing Russianᅠsupport for Yemen's Houthi movement. Due to these pressure points in Saudi-Russian relations, the Saudi leadership is currently not interested in making any "great overtures" to the Kremlin, according to Krieg.
Lots of disagreements
Within BRICS+, there are countries that strongly disagree with each other on many international issues.
Egypt and Ethiopia have theirᅠdispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. China and India are major geopolitical rivals. Iran and the UAE have a territorialᅠdispute over three islands, ideological friction, and opposing stakes in Lebanon, Sudan, Yemen, and other conflicts in the Arab region. Iran has also had its differences with Egypt for decades.
Naturally, Saudi Arabia would diverge from other BRICS+ members on important issues if the kingdom enters the bloc.
This leads some analysts toᅠconclude that Riyadh may choose to focus more on enhancing relationships with the countries of the bloc on a bilateral basis. This would be while participating selectively in BRICS+, essentially as a de facto member whose engagement is mostly for symbolic purposes.
For now, doing this might be the Saudi way of continuing to enhance its networks throughout the Global South while minimising the risk of antagonising Washington, which is set to continue perceiving the bloc's expansion as a challenge to US interests.
"Overall, I think Saudi Arabia's interest in BRICS will be largely symbolic rather than substantial, given that it's still heavily reliant on Washington for defence. But should BRICS become a favourable entity by which to export energy, Saudi Arabia's interest would dramatically increase," Bohl concluded.
Giorgio Cafiero is the CEO of Gulf State Analytics (@GulfStateAnalyt), a Washington, DC-based geopolitical risk consultancy.
https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/whats-holding-saudi-arabia-back-from-joining-brics-18225696
Venezuela recalls Brazil ambassador, angered by BRICS veto
The Foreign Ministry in a statement denounced the "irrational behaviour of Brazilian diplomats, who contravened the approval of the rest of BRICS members by adopting a blocking policy" at the summit in Russia.
Venezuela has recalled its ambassador to Brazil after its application to join the BRICS group of emerging economies was vetoed last week by Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
The Foreign Ministry in a statement on Wednesday denounced the "irrational behaviour of Brazilian diplomats, who contravened the approval of the rest of BRICS members by adopting a blocking policy" at the summit in Russia.
The decision infuriated Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro.
The ministry also lashed out at the "recurring interventionist, rude statements" by Brazilian government representatives on Venezuela.
It took particular aim at former foreign minister Celso Amorim, an advisor to Lula, who said Brazil had vetoed the BRICS application because Caracas "breached the trust" of its partners by failing to hold, what they said, transparent elections.
Brazil has yet to recognize Maduro's re-election to a third term, while calling for a detailed breakdown of results to be released.